Understanding BTO Ballot Success Rates: 2025 Analysis
October 27, 2025
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Our analysis of BTO applications in 2025 reveals important insights for prospective buyers.
Overall Success Rates:
• 2-room Flexi: 1 in 2.5 applicants
• 3-room: 1 in 4.2 applicants
• 4-room: 1 in 6.8 applicants (most competitive)
• 5-room: 1 in 5.1 applicants
By Estate Type:
Mature Estates:
• Average application rate: 8.5 applicants per unit
• Most competitive: Kallang (12.3 per unit)
• Least competitive: Geylang (5.2 per unit)
Non-Mature Estates:
• Average application rate: 4.2 applicants per unit
• Most competitive: Tengah (7.1 per unit)
• Least competitive: Yishun (2.8 per unit)
Tips for Applicants:
1. Consider less popular estates with good potential
2. Look at upcoming MRT connections
3. 3-room and 5-room flats generally less competitive than 4-room
4. First-timer couples have priority over second-timers
5. Apply for multiple projects if eligible
Market Outlook:
With HDB increasing supply in 2025-2026, we may see improved ballot success rates in the coming launches. However, mature estates will likely remain competitive due to limited land availability.
Overall Success Rates:
• 2-room Flexi: 1 in 2.5 applicants
• 3-room: 1 in 4.2 applicants
• 4-room: 1 in 6.8 applicants (most competitive)
• 5-room: 1 in 5.1 applicants
By Estate Type:
Mature Estates:
• Average application rate: 8.5 applicants per unit
• Most competitive: Kallang (12.3 per unit)
• Least competitive: Geylang (5.2 per unit)
Non-Mature Estates:
• Average application rate: 4.2 applicants per unit
• Most competitive: Tengah (7.1 per unit)
• Least competitive: Yishun (2.8 per unit)
Tips for Applicants:
1. Consider less popular estates with good potential
2. Look at upcoming MRT connections
3. 3-room and 5-room flats generally less competitive than 4-room
4. First-timer couples have priority over second-timers
5. Apply for multiple projects if eligible
Market Outlook:
With HDB increasing supply in 2025-2026, we may see improved ballot success rates in the coming launches. However, mature estates will likely remain competitive due to limited land availability.